It's The End Of The RPG As We Know It, And I Feel Fine

With the conclusion of 2011, the experts have all come out and begun the proclamation that Dungeons & Dragons and the RPG are doomed. Why? Well, The Wizards released a couple of their long time employees, while rehiring Monte Cook of 3e fame. That must mean 5e is around the corner, right? Secondly, all indications are that Pathfinder was outselling D&D for most of last year. Surely, this means 5e is on the way, right?

I want to get into two things, the OGL and the idea that people aren't buying 4e. On the second point, You have to factor in the DDI subscription rate. This is several thousand subscribers, or so I've heard. If that's the case, they are making six figures per month, at least 300k. Not chump change, and no need to print anything for that. Just maintain the online system. As for book sales, how much is being sold online at various sites? Now, I'm not disputing the success of Pathfinder. That's pretty self evident. But, just how bad is it for D&D?

Now, to the OGL, let me quote the man who was there and is now currently doing business with the main competition, Ryan Dancey from a recent post at Enworld:

"One of the goals of the OGL and the D20 project was to ensure that no single company would ever have the ability to kill Dungeons & Dragons. TSR almost did so; near the end of its existence it had pledged the copyrights and trademarks of the D&D franchise as security against loans it could not afford to repay. Had TSR gone into bankruptcy it is likely that for at least some time, and possibly an extremely lengthy period, nobody would have had the right to publish using that IP while the bankers fought over the carcass of TSR."

I've seen him say words to this effect elsewhere. Now, I do think the OGL was pretty cool. It gave rise to the old school revival. I wonder how much that may have influenced Paizo's decision to go with Pathfinder when they lost the rights to Dragon and Dungeon magazines as 4e came into being. I know there was more to it than that, of course. OGL inspired OSRIC, and OSRIC gave rise to the old school movement where works compatible with 1e and the old Basic game could legally be published.

Having said that, the OGL was an incredibly bone headed move, as written, for WotC to make. Make it open with an expiration date, but not indefinite. Every time a new version of D&D came out, some people chose to stay with the old one or went elsewhere. But, there wasn't a clone supported by a company that had the funds to make a dent in the D&D empire. Until 4e came out. Was 4e really needed? And if so, was it needed this soon? The usual fury greeted that release, but this time something else followed. An option. Play 3e under the name of Pathfinder. Brilliant move by Paizo, but an option that never should have existed.

I find it hard to believe that death of D&D was really a motivating factor for the OGL, especially coming from the company that brought us the Magic Collectible Card Game . WotC wasn't going out of business, and giving away the rules wasn't a smart BUSINESS move. From a gamer standpoint, sure. Business-wise, no way. This move did make a dent in 4e. It effected their hold as the leader of the market and allowed the competitor to compete using rules that came from D&D originally. Not smart, but what's done is done.

Now, because of corporate demands, there may be higher expectations with Hasbro for D&D. Is 4e a failure? I don't have enough information in front of me to make that call, but something tells me no it isn't. Not as successful as they would like? Probably. The OGL a factor? Yes. There's one way to put an end to that. Release 3.5 again. What would be the point? For one thing, a gesture to that crowd. Release material compatible with 3.5 and 4e. A little more work? Sure. Doable? Yes. Pathfinder may still be a factor after that, but people can go to D&D for 3.5 material now too.

But, let's not stop there. Drop the idea of 5e for now. It's not needed. D&D already has enough competition with itself without adding a new edition. However, if they are as interested in winning over the old schoolers as recent columns from their site would seem to indicate, old editions could be officially released again. This could be done with a limited print edition and Print on Demand or just the latter. D&D Retro, if you will. What this does is show that they really do want everybody back under the D&D umbrella, whatever edition you prefer.

One of the reasons to do this is to attend to the leak of D&D customers buying older versions of the game under different names and bringing some of that money back home. Of more immediate concern is the rift between 3.5 and 4e that led to Pathfinder stepping in. I also favor a new Basic game done with longer playability the way it was done over 20 years ago, but that's a side issue. You handle the loss of old players by giving them what they want, not telling them 4e or nothing. That's what caused this mess.

The problem with the idea of 5e is you continue the cycle, this time pissing off a segment of 4e players and fragmenting the game some more. 5e can wait. If the state of D&D is so bad that a new edition is needed to "save" the brand, than they really are screwed. If they can't then make the greatest RPG ever, the brand is screwed. By restoring 3.5 and supporting both it and 4e, you are mending fences and restoring consumer faith. The Retro D&D idea, even as a POD with occasional new adventure mods, further adds to that effort, though some may say screw those people. With PoD, however, it would be a money maker in the long run.

But, it's all just speculation. I'm just somebody with an opinion like anybody else. Where they go with the game is anybody's guess. I don't see the doom and gloom others may see. The game will go on. Hopefully, if they do go the 5e rout, it will be a uniting factor in the community, and D&D will also make use of technology in a way that ensures a long life for the game. That's what really matters. Plus, we'll always have the older versions no matter what comes in the future, but maybe the future game will offer something everybody can enjoy. Now, there's a nice thought.